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Irrational Exuberance (2000) - Robert Schiller

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 							In PDF format, old one had no seeds and I don't have the original, so here's this one. 
  (ISBN: 0691050627
/ 978-0691050621)
  Everything below is copied completely from
http://www.demonoid.ph/files/details/1693475/45059450/
  
  Winner of the
2000 Commonfund Prize for Best Contribution to Endowment Management Research
  
  
  In this bold and
potentially urgent volume, Robert J. Shiller, a respected expert on market volatility, offers an unconventional
interpretation of recent U.S. stock market highs and shows that Alan Greenspan's term "irrational exuberance" is a good
description of the mood behind the market. He warns that poorer performance may be in the offing and tells us how we--as
a country and individually--can respond.
  
  Shiller credits an unprecedented confluence of events with
driving stocks to uncharted heights. He analyzes the structural and psychological factors that explain why the Dow Jones
Industrial Average tripled between 1994 and 1999, a level of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In
contrast to many analysts, Shiller stresses circumstances that alter investors' perceptions of the market. These include
the entry of the Internet into American homes, the misimpression that the aging of the baby-boom generation builds
long-term protection into the market, and herd behavior, such as day-trading. He also examines cultural factors,
including sports-style media coverage of the Dow's ups and downs and "new era" thinking about the economy. He
considers--and challenges--efforts to rationalize exuberance that are based on either efficient-markets theory, narrowly
construed, or the claim that investors have only recently learned the true value of the market.
  
  In the
most controversial portion of the book, Shiller cautions that a market that is overvalued by historical standards is
inherently precarious. Among his prescriptions is an urgent plea to immediately end what he argues are perilous schemes
to privatize social security in favor of plans to reform it. He also argues that private pension plans that encourage
many people to put their entire retirement funds in the stock market should be modified. And he calls on our savings and
investment institutions to take more sensible account of emerging risk-management principles. Shiller's analysis is
convincingly documented, and--regardless of the market's future behavior--his book will stand as an important
elaboration of why stocks soared and what our investment alternatives are.
  
  Irrational Exuberance is a
must-read for pension-plan sponsors and endowment managers in the United States and abroad. It will also be studied by
investment advisers, policy makers, and anyone from Wall Street to Main Street who doesn't want to be caught sitting on
the speculative bubble if (or when) it bursts.
  
  Reviews:
  
  "Dazzling, richly textured,
provocative . . . It is by far the most important book about the stock market since Jeremy J. Siegel's Stocks for the
Long Run. . . ."--William Wolman, Business Week
  
  "Irrational Exuberance should be compulsory reading for
anybody interested in Wall Street or financially exposed to it; at the moment, that would be roughly everybody in the
United States. . . ."--The Economist
  
  "Robert Shiller . . . has done more than any other economist of his
generation to document the less rational aspects of financial markets. . . . Mr. Shiller believes that the whole stock
market, not just the Dow, is inflated by a speculative bubble."--Paul Krugman, The New York Times
  
  "During
the past decade, he has emerged as a leader in the new field of "behavioral finance" which seeks to apply lessons
learned from other academic disciplines, particularly psychology to economics. Irrational Exuberance is not just a
prophecy of doom. Encompassing history, sociology, and biology, as well as psychology and economics, it is a serious
attempt to explain how speculative bubbles come about and how they sustain themselves."--John Cassidy, The New Yorker
						

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